Us Recession 2024 Forecast. We see a 25% chance of recession by the first half of 2024, 45% by the second half of 2024 and 60% by the first half of 2025. View an estimate of the probability of recession based on employment, industrial production, real personal income, and real manufacturing and trade sales.
November 13, 2024 at 2:52 am pst. Us economic data continue to surprise to the upside, revealing ongoing resilience despite looming uncertainties and persistent shocks.